Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
