Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
